JACKSON COLUMN: Wales hunt the biggest scalp of them all

A GUINNESS PRO12 hat-trick without precedent over the Southern Hemisphere is at stake. All four Irish provinces having overwhelmed the world's second best team in Dublin and Glasgow's Warriors having switched virtually en masse to the international stage at Murrayfield, the best of the four Welsh regions follow two tough acts against the toughest opponent of all.

New Zealand's presence at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday revives the hope that the vast majority of the 74,000 fans crammed inside will witness something they have never seen before, something of potentially far greater historical significance for the Red Dragonhood than the sight of an opposing player captaining his country for the 100th time.

Richie McCaw has good reason to be wary lest Wales strike a blow on behalf of the GUINNESS PRO12 mightier than those landed by the Irish and Scots during the past fortnight at the expense of South Africa and Argentina respectively.

Beating the All Blacks is another matter entirely as Wales know only too well. They haven't beaten them since 1953, a year renowned for the Queen's coronation and for the epic climb of the New Zealand mountaineer Sir Edmund Hillary, the first man to conquer Everest in tandem with the Nepalese Sherpa, Tenzin Norgay.

At Cardiff Arms Park in December of that year, Bob Stuart's All Blacks lost to Bleddyn Williams' Wales 13-8. They haven't lost to them since but they were never closer at any stage during the professional era than when McCaw led his country for the first time this weekend ten years ago.

On Saturday, against the same opposition at the same venue at precisely the same time of the year, he is scheduled to complete a century unique in rugby history having long overtaken the imposing totals set by two of his contemporaries, Brian O'Driscoll and John Smit.

The newly-retired Dubliner skippered Ireland 84 times while Smit's Springbok reign spanned one match more, two of the all-time greats finishing with a winning percentage in the mid 60's.

O'Driscoll lost 31 Tests as captain, Smit 28. McCaw has lost ten, on average one a year which, in a rugby sense, redefines the meaning of consistency as it has never been redefined before.

Wales may have found the men in black too daunting a prospect far too often down the years but this time they plan a full-frontal assault similar to Ireland's in Dublin last year when a missed penalty allowed the World Cup holders to rob their hosts of a famous win by virtue of an injury-time converted try.

The magnitude of the task facing Sam Warburton's Wales can be gauged from the fact that in Europe, New Zealand have played 35 Tests under McCaw and lost just twice, to England at Twickenham two years ago and France in a World Cup quarter-final at the Millennium Stadium in 2007.

McCaw will not need anyone to remind of that, nor of what happened at the same place the day he wore the armband for the first time. Wales, ahead three times after tries from Tom Shanklin and Mefin Davies, could not have gone any closer, as they had done in 1978 when Andy Haden's notorious line-out dive coincided with the penalty which left them one point short at 13-12.

Ten years ago Joe Rokocoko's second try of a thrilling duel and a later Dan Carter penalty ensured Wales again suffered the anguish of losing by the narrowest possible margin, this time 26-25. As close shaves go, it couldn't have been closer, unusually so for what has tended to be the most one-sided of all Test fixtures.

After enduring another close-run thing of a very different kind against Fiji last week, head coach Warren Gatland will expect the real Wales to stand up for the big one with all his front line players back in action.

The third week of the annual autumn series offers Ireland the prospect of making it three wins in a row and England salvation from the exact opposite. Australia, for once unable to stage a late recovery against France during last week's outstanding match, are about to find out how far Joe Schmidt has taken Ireland since the Wallabies inflicted the coach's first Test defeat twelve months ago.

They did so by a margin which left no room for debate: 32-15 on points, 4-0 on tries and all that despite losing Michael Hooper to a yellow card eight minutes before half time and Tevita Kuridrani to a red one eight minutes from time after a dangerous tackle on Peter O'Mahony.

Having changed the pecking order towards the top of the IRB rankings and followed the magnificent Springbok victory with six tries against Georgia last Sunday, skipper Paul O'Connell will settle for nothing less than another win.

While that would confirm Ireland's status as the world's No. 3 ranked country, at Australia's expense, England welcome Samoa to Twickenham anxious to end a run of five straight defeats.

Scotland, fresh from running the All Blacks closer than at any time since David Sole's Grand Slam team went within a whisker of beating them at Eden Park in 1990, face Tonga at the aptly-named Rugby Park, home of Kilmarnock FC.

France, winners over Fiji and Australia in the last fortnight, meet Argentina in Paris. Italy, narrowly beaten by the Pumas in Padua last week, return there this Saturday for their toughest challenge, against the Springboks.

Whatever happens, no individual achievement will surely be as colossal as the one McCaw is scheduled to reach in Cardiff. Rest assured Wales will be prepared to bust a collective gut to ruin one party and ignite an infinitely bigger one…


McCaw's debut as captain:

Wales 25, New Zealand 26, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff, November 20, 2004.

Wales:
Gareth Thomas (capt); Tom Shanklin, Sonny Parker, Gavin Henson, Shane Williams; Stephen Jones, Dwayne Peel; Gethin Jenkins, Mefin Davies, Adam Jones; Brent Cockbain, Gareth Llewellyn; Dafydd Jones, Colin Charvis, Michael Owen.
Substitutions: Duncan Jones (for Jenkins), Ryan Jones (for Llewellyn), Gareth Cooper (for Peel), Martyn Williams (for Charvis), Steven Jones (for Davies), Jenkins (for Adam Jones). Not used: Gareth Williams, Ceri Sweeney.

Tries: Shanklin, Davies. Penalties- Stephen Jones 3, Henson 2.

New Zealand:
Mils Muliaina; Doug Howlett, Casey Laulala, Aaron Mauger, Joe Rokocoko; Dan Carter, Piri Weepu; Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu, Greg Somerville; Chris Jack, Ali Williams; Rodney So'oialo, Richie McCaw (capt), Mose Tuiali'i.
Substitutions: Ma'a Nonu (for Mauger), Carl Hayman (for Woodcock), Byron Kelleher (for Weepu). Not used: Anton Oliver, Reuben Thorne, Marty Holah, Rico Gear.

Tries: Rokocoko 2, Muliaina. Conversion: D.Carter. Penalties: D Carter 3

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